ABBV Q2 2025: SKYRIZI Surge, RINVOQ Alopecia Set for $2B Gain
- Strong Market Leadership & Product Differentiation: Management highlighted robust head‐to‐head trial results, particularly for SKYRIZI, which has attracted market share gains against competitors (e.g., STELARA biosimilars) and continues to drive robust sales growth across both immunology and psoriatic indications.
- Robust Pipeline & Significant Growth Potential: The next wave of RINVOQ indications—including impressive alopecia areata data—could potentially add approximately $2 billion in peak year sales, underscoring a durable growth trajectory fueled by an expanding, diversified portfolio.
- Proactive Strategic Investment & Resilience: The company’s proactive moves—such as expanding U.S. manufacturing capacity to mitigate tariff concerns and addressing biosimilar impacts while maintaining pricing discipline—position ABBV to sustainably grow margins and revenue despite competitive and macro headwinds.
- Aesthetic Business Headwinds: Prolonged macroeconomic uncertainty is pressuring the aesthetics segment—with weak dermal filler market growth and persistent concerns among patients about price sensitivity and overfilled looks—potentially dampening long‑term revenue recovery.
- Pricing & Regulatory Negotiation Risks: Ongoing uncertainties around IRA price negotiations and potential tariff impacts, alongside anticipated pricing pressures in the second half of the year (e.g., negative pricing adjustments for SKYRIZI due to Part D redesign), could hurt margins.
- Competitive Pressure in Key Franchises: Heightened competition—from biosimilars impacting legacy products and new entrants in the immunology class (e.g., STELARA biosimilars and Tremfya’s new IBD approvals)—may erode market share and challenge the sustained growth of flagship treatments.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Revenue (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023) | Reported growth of 0.7% and 1.6% operationally | Decline in Humira sales (down 35.9% globally with U.S. −39.9%) due to biosimilar competition was largely offset by robust performance from newer products like Skyrizi (+47.6%) and Rinvoq (+59.3%), leading to overall marginal revenue growth |
Revenue (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024) | Reported increase of 8.4% (9.8% operational) | Strong immunology portfolio expansion—Skyrizi grew by 70.5% and Rinvoq by 57.2%—propelled revenue growth despite a further decline in Humira (−50.6%), while gains in neuroscience and oncology also contributed |
Geographic Revenue (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023) | U.S. revenue down 1.7%; International revenue up 8.1% | Divergent regional performance emerged as U.S. revenues suffered from product exclusivity challenges, whereas international markets benefited from a 16.0% growth in immunology products (despite a modest foreign exchange headwind of −0.9%) |
Geographic Revenue (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024) | U.S. revenue up 10.4%; International revenue up 2.9% | Improved domestic performance driven by recovery in U.S. markets and enhanced market share for key immunology products, while international gains were tempered by modest growth and tariff impacts |
Cash Flow (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023) | Operating: from $4,193M to $4,040M; Investing: from –$499M to –$9,588M; Financing: from –$6,192M to +$10,819M | Operating cash flow declined slightly due to higher R&D funding and product mix shifts; a massive investing outflow was due to the $9.8B ImmunoGen acquisition, while financing cash inflows surged with the issuance of unsecured senior notes |
Cash Flow (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024) | Operating dropped to $1,635M; Investing improved to –$735M; Financing shifted to –$1,258M | Further reduction in operating cash flow was linked to working capital timing and litigation payments; investing outflows decreased as acquisition-related expenses subsided, while financing turned negative because of principal repayments and adjustments in note issues |
Balance Sheet (Q1 2024 vs Dec 2023) | Cash increased from $12,814M to $18,067M; Intangible assets rose by $6.6B; Goodwill increased by $1.1B; LT Debt grew from $52,194M to $63,805M | The increases were driven by proceeds from financing activities and the ImmunoGen acquisition, which bolstered intangibles and goodwill, while the significant debt uptick reflects funding obtained for the acquisition |
Balance Sheet (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024) | Accounts receivable up from $10,919M to $12,477M; Inventories increased by $345M; Cash modestly decreased from $5,524M to $5,175M; Short-term borrowings emerged at $1,593M; LT Debt increased from $60,340M to $64,527M | Rising accounts receivable and inventory levels mirror higher sales activity, while a slight drop in cash reflects operating outflows; new short-term borrowings and debt increases, along with share repurchases, influenced the overall equity composition |
Income Statement (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023) | Net revenues edged up from $12,225M to $12,310M (0.7% reported); Cost of products, SG&A increased; R&D decreased; Other expenses dropped from $1.9B to $586M; Net earnings jumped from $239M to $1,369M; GAAP EPS from $0.13 to $0.77 | Despite only modest revenue growth, reduced other expenses (partly from lower contingent consideration items) and a significant drop in the effective tax rate (from 49% to 22%) boosted net earnings and EPS markedly in Q1 2024 |
Income Statement (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024) | Net revenue increased by 8.4% to $13.343B; Humira further declined (–50.6%); R&D expenses increased from $1.939B to $2.067B; Other expenses rose to $1.441B; Net earnings fell slightly from $1,369M to $1,286M; GAAP EPS decreased from $0.77 to $0.72; Adjusted EPS improved | Revenue was buoyed by strong performances in immunology, neuroscience, and oncology, yet a sharper drop in Humira and higher R&D plus IPR&D costs (with increased other expenses from contingent adjustments) compressed net earnings and GAAP EPS despite an improved adjusted result and lower tax rate |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS | FY 2025 | $12.09 to $12.29 | $11.88 to $12.08 | lowered |
Total Net Revenues | FY 2025 | $59.7 billion | $60.5 billion | raised |
Adjusted Gross Margin | FY 2025 | 84% | 84% | no change |
Adjusted R&D Expense | FY 2025 | $8.9 billion | $9 billion | raised |
Adjusted SG&A Expense | FY 2025 | $13.2 billion | $13.5 billion | raised |
Adjusted Operating Margin Ratio | FY 2025 | 46.5% | 45% | lowered |
Foreign Exchange Impact | FY 2025 | 0.6% unfavorable impact | Relatively neutral | raised |
SKYRIZI Global Revenues | FY 2025 | $16.5 billion (increase of $600 million) | $17.1 billion (increase of $600 million) | raised |
U.S. HUMIRA Revenues | FY 2025 | $3.5 billion (decrease of $500 million) | $3.0 billion (decrease of $500 million) | lowered |
IMBRUVICA Global Revenues | FY 2025 | $2.8 billion (increase of $100 million) | $2.9 billion (increase of $100 million) | raised |
VENCLEXTA Global Sales | FY 2025 | $2.7 billion (increase of $100 million) | $2.8 billion (increase of $100 million) | raised |
Net Revenues | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $15.5 billion (includes 1% favorable forex impact) | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EPS | Q3 2025 | no prior guidance | $3.24 to $3.28 (excludes acquired IPR&D expense) | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Immunology Assets | Strong performance of SKYRIZI and RINVOQ with notable market share gains and accompanying Humira erosion in Q1 ( ), Q4 ( ) and Q3 ( ) | Robust immunology asset performance with SKYRIZI growing 61.8% and RINVOQ 41.2%, while Humira saw deeper erosion (–58.2%) ( ) | Consistent strength in immunology with intensifying competitive challenges for Humira |
Pipeline Expansion and Diversification | Ongoing pipeline growth across immunology, oncology and neuroscience with strategic transactions in Q1 ( ) and diversified expansion with early-stage deals and regulatory milestones noted in Q4 ( ); Q3 provided broader pipeline discussion without alopecia areata details ( ) | Emphasis on new indications such as alopecia areata with Phase III data and combination trials, adding a distinct focus to the ongoing diversification ( ) | New topical focus (alopecia areata) emerging while overall pipeline diversification continues |
Manufacturing Expansion and Capital Investments | Robust U.S. manufacturing network and plans for expanding production capacity including multiple new sites and significant $10B investment highlighted in Q1 ( ); earlier periods had limited or no discussion (Q3/Q4 not mentioned) | Reiterated broad U.S. manufacturing network with 11 sites and planned capital investments that reinforce supply reliability ( ) | Continued focus on U.S. capacity expansion with renewed emphasis on strategic supply reliability |
Pricing Pressures and Regulatory Risks | Engagement on IRA and Medicare Part D redesign were discussed in Q1 ( ) and detailed Medicare Part D impact with a 4% net headwind in Q4 ( ); Q3 had minimal explicit discussion ( ) | Detailed focus on IRA negotiations, Medicare Part D redesign impact, and tariff/trade policy uncertainties underscoring operational and regulatory challenges ( ) | Increasing emphasis on policy risks and pricing pressures with more granular discussion in the current period |
Competitive Pressures | Persistent biosimilar challenges with Humira decline and competitive pressure noted in Q1 ( ), Q4 ( ) and shifting volume dynamics in Q3 ( ) | Further highlighting of biosimilar impacts on Humira and the competitive advantage of SKYRIZI/RINVOQ in capturing patient share, with stronger emphasis on competitive dynamics ( ) | Persistent and intensifying biosimilar pressures remain a core concern, partly offset by strong new product performance |
Aesthetics Business Performance | Short-term economic headwinds, market share pressures and tariff impacts were flagged in Q1 ( ), Q4 indicated market share declines yet long-term growth potential ( ), while Q3 noted economic sensitivity and moderated outlook ( ) | Reports indicate ongoing economic softness, consumer sentiment shifts (e.g. preference for natural looks), and tapering market growth for dermal fillers, but with long-term growth prospects supported by innovation such as new toxin products ( ) | Ongoing short-term challenges balanced against a sustained long-term growth narrative driven by innovation and low market penetration |
Strategic M&A and Acquisitions | Strategic transactions, including acquisitions like Nimble Therapeutics and Cerevel, and multiple early-stage deals were highlighted in Q1 ( ), Q4 detailed over 20 early-stage deals plus Cerevel discussions ( ), and Q3 stressed active M&A including Cerevel and Aliado ( ) | Continued strategic transactions aimed at bolstering pipeline depth through external deals and acquisitions, with focus on opportunities across immunology and neuroscience ( ) | Consistently active strategic M&A remains central to pipeline strengthening with a balanced portfolio emphasis |
Emerging Oncology Assets | Q1 emphasized Tmab-A details and early promise of assets like ABBV 706 ( ); Q4 provided detailed progress on Tmab-A/ABBV-400 via Phase III and combination study plans ( ); Q3 highlighted encouraging Phase I data for ABBV-400 in NSCLC and gastroesophageal cancer ( ) | Promising Phase I data for tMAbA (ABBV-400) in NSCLC demonstrated high response rates and plans for further studies, underscoring its potential ( ) | Consistent optimism and advancing clinical data in oncology assets reinforce their potential as future growth drivers |
Neuroscience Pipeline Advancements | Q1 discussed pending emraclidine studies with plans for dose optimization and broader neuroscience investments ( ); Q4 provided detailed updates on emraclidine and positive Tavapadon results ( ); Q3 focused on pending emraclidine data and strategic acquisitions to strengthen the field ( ) | While Q2 did not provide specific emraclidine updates, it emphasized a growing overall focus on neuroscience with several portfolio advancements and strategic investments ( ) | Consistent pipeline strengthening in neuroscience persists, with robust investments offsetting selective delays in specific data releases |
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Revenue Guidance
Q: Clarify SKYRIZI and RINVOQ guidance, any tariff impact?
A: Management reiterated strong momentum for SKYRIZI and RINVOQ with updated full‐year guidance and assured minimal tariff exposure this year. -
SKYRIZI Drivers
Q: What fuels SKYRIZI’s growth and BD strategy?
A: Leaders emphasized robust growth across all indications and strategic external deals that strengthen the long‐term pipeline. -
Oncology Pipeline
Q: How is AbbVie positioned in oncology BD opportunities?
A: Executives are carefully monitoring the PD‑1/VEGF class and are poised to partner high‐potential ADC assets to enhance oncology performance. -
IRA Pricing
Q: Update on IRA negotiations and pricing impact?
A: Management deferred detailed pricing commentary but noted that favorable orphan exemptions have helped, with an expectation of neutral pricing for Vraylar. -
IL-23/Neuro
Q: How competitive is IL‑23 and what drives neuro growth?
A: The team confirmed SKYRIZI’s market leadership in the IL‑23 category and attributed robust neuro growth to volume gains and stable margins. -
SKYRIZI Pricing
Q: Explain favorable SKYRIZI pricing amid IV induction volumes?
A: Management explained that strong volume performance is driving favorable pricing now, though slight adjustments are expected later to align with full‑year targets. -
Biosimilar Impact
Q: Impact of Stellara biosimilar on product uptake?
A: Executives observed minimal negative effect, as many patients continue to choose higher‑efficacy options like SKYRIZI and RINVOQ. -
BIOLEV Launch
Q: Is BIOLEV’s success driven by US or international demand?
A: Management noted strong international demand with expectations for a US ramp‑up later in the year. -
Aesthetics‑Obesity
Q: Can aesthetics channels boost obesity drug sales?
A: Leaders see strategic synergy between the robust aesthetics footprint and obesity therapy, which should support sustained revenue growth. -
Alopecia Sales
Q: What sales impact does the alopecia data have?
A: Management expects the impressive alopecia areata results to significantly enhance RINVOQ’s portfolio, potentially adding around $2B in peak annual sales as data matures. -
Aesthetics & Alzheimer
Q: Why is aesthetic uncertainty lingering; update Alzheimer asset?
A: While economic challenges in aesthetics persist, management remains optimistic due to upcoming disruptive toxin launches and steady progress on a next‑generation Alzheimer’s antibody.